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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted international attention. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an army of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a lesson, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd